One of the big changes to higher education in the past decade was the change in tuition fees in England in 2012.
We summarised what we have seen on the effects of this through UCAS data last November. This showed that it seems likely that the change in tuition fees did make young people less likely to apply (by around 5 per cent or so) but that the proportion of young people who went on to enter higher education did not appear to be much affected by the change.
On these two key questions the note said:
Did higher fees reduce young demand?
Yes. Young application rates fell in 2012 after a long pattern of annual increases, making young people around 5 per cent or so less likely to apply than expected. But higher fees do not seem to have slowed the long term trend of increasing demand. Application rates increased at around their long term trend in both 2013 and 2014, so that demand is now at the highest ever levels. But it is likely that application rates remain a little below what they would have been if higher fees had not been introduced.
Did higher fees reduce young people's chance of entering higher education?
No. When we look at entry rates, particularly those that take into account entry at ages 18 and 19, the proportion of the young population entering higher education has continued to increase steadily as higher fees were introduced.
We’ve since published both our 2014 End of Cycle report and 2015 cycle January deadline analysis which continue these patterns.
By extrapolating trends in application rates and population changes we can make estimates of the level of demand over the next few years. This analysis briefing note summarises what might happen to demand if these trends continue, as well as highlighting factors (such as changes to tuition fees and unemployment) which have changed these trends in the past.
Demand factors (341.99 KB)